ISDC 2012 – Jeff Greason and the Implications for Space Policy Advocacy

Last year at ISDC in Huntsville, Jeff Greason gave a rabble-rousing address wherein he maintained that the obvious, but unspoken word in current space policy was “settlement”. Not any specific program, but settlement. This year in Washington D. C., Jeff made a much more important statement; this time concerning commercial space and how to create a viable settlement. Thinking about his observations of the scary paradigm shift down which NASA has begun to be dragged kicking and screaming, I am reminded of the politics in Colorado in the 2004 -2006 congressional campaign. There were six or so special interest groups working to select a candidate. But the environmentalists would not support the labor union candidate because his constituents favored mining and harvesting forests. The women’s rights group would not support the environmental candidate because he was anti-abortion. And so it went. A politically astute gentleman, with considerable means, arrived to discuss the issue with the groups. He pointed out that if any one group withdrew from the coalition, they would lose the election, and the opposing party would elect a representative who was going to vote against each and every program that the respective groups wanted. He also pointed out that if this program oriented withdrawal of support were repeated state by state, then congress would be controlled by people who would roll back gains that each group had achieved over the years. On the other hand, if the groups agreed to compromise, to be willing to accept that in Colorado their candidate had to stand for mining and foresting in order to be elected, and they could show other coalitions in other states the same need to compromise and support an underlying need to elect people who supported most of their positions most of the time, then they would control congress and each of their issues stood a good chance of advancing. Although any individual congress critter might vote against an issue to satisfy their local situation, the majority would vote in favor. And finally, if a compromise candidate were truly supported by all, he would contribute a million dollars to the campaign. Now, in space policy, we have the Moon Society advocating for a Moon program. And we have the Mars Society advocating for a Mars program. We have the Planetary Society. We have the National Space Society. We have the Commercial Spaceflight Federation. We have many groups advocating for their program. And it is easy for the congress critters to ignore us. No one has a very big voice. What is needed is for all to advocate for the paradigm shift that Jeff discussed. Settlement, no matter where it will be or when it will be, will only be successful if we can migrate each step along the way (to wherever we go) off of the NASA budget and into the commercial sector. And we can only do that if we create the conditions that allow individuals, free people, to own the assets (labor and capital) that not only allow for subsistence, but for excess capacity, for success and failure. It is the excess capacity that will eventually result in wealth and trade. It is past time for the central planning of all space exploration efforts. We must all be advocating for the chaotic market within which commercial space can succeed. The combined voice will be strong enough to make a difference in the space policy debate. Dr. C. David Fischer, Jr Phoenix, Arizona [Ed. Note: The thoughts expressed here are the author’s, and do not reflect the thoughts or policy of the Phoenix Chapter of the National Space Society nor the National Space Society.]

GRAIL A and B Settle Into Lunar Orbit

GRAIL-B Breaking into Lunar Orbit Image Credit: NASA / JPL-Caltech

NASA successfully placed the second GRAIL (Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory) spacecraft in orbit around the Moon on Sunday, 1 January. GRAIL-B entered orbit at 3:43 PM Phoenix time (2243 UTC). GRAIL-A achieved orbit the previous day at 3:00 PM Phoenix time (2200 UTC).

Lunar Topographic Map

100 meter resolution lunar topographic map Image Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center / DLR / ASU

NASA has released a nearly complete topographic map of the Moon at a resolution of 100 meters (the Global Lunar DTM 100 m topographic model – GLD100) With the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Wide Angle Camera and the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument, scientists can now accurately portray the shape of the entire moon at high resolution. Additional information can be found at the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera center at Arizona State University.

First Lunar Base Inside A Lava Tube?

Floor of a Lunar Lava Tube Image Credit: NASA/Goddard/Arizona State University

Is the floor of this lunar lava tube the likely home of a manned lunar base?

Hayabusa – Dust From Itokawa – III

The issue of the journal Science from 26 August 2011 vol 333 pp 1113-1131 has six articles on the Hayabusa sample return mission from the asteroid Itokawa. The first article is discussed here, the second here, and this is the third: Neutron Activation Analysis of a Particle from Asteroid Itokawa A single grain from the Hayabusa mission has been analyzed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). The grain was mainly olivine, with minor amounts of plagioclase, troilite and metal. This grain was one of the largest returned by the Hayabusa mission. The scanning electron microprobe (SEM) results show this to be a large crystal of olivine. Small pieces of silicate were attached to the surface. Radioactive analysis indicates that the grain is relatively homogeneous. Comparison of the INAA analysis of this grain from Itokawa with from an LL6 chondrite (St Severin) and an L6 chondrite (Modoc) indicated an elemental abundance discrepancy. Iron (Fe) and Scandium (Sc) abundance can be determined reliably, and the ratio is determined by the differentiation of iron into the core of a body during its formation. In particular, the Fe/Sc ratios from the Earth, Moon, Mars and 4Vesta are lower than those of chondrites. The ratios from Itokawa are higher than those from terrestrial olivine, and are thus from an extraterrestrial origin. This increases confidence that Hayabusa did return samples from Itokawa. Nickel (Ni) and Cobalt (Co) typically diffuse into a metal phase. The ratio of Ni/Co in bulk chondrites plot along a line with carbonaceous chondrites. Samples from the Earth’s crust are relatively depleted in Nickel compared to Cobalt, and thus are distinguished from the grain returned from Itokawa. In addition, Iridium (Ir) abundances were estimated, and the result indicates that the sample must have condensed from a fractionated nebula gas where refractory siderophiles such as Iridium had already condensed and been removed.

Hayabusa – Dust From Itokawa – II

The issue of the journal Science from 26 August 2011 vol 333 pp 1113-1131 has six articles on the Hayabusa sample return mission from the asteroid Itokawa. The first article is discussed here, and this is the second: Oxygen Isotopic Compositions of Asteroidal Materials Returned from Itokawa The first article in this series established that the major mineral assemblages of the asteroid Itokawa are olivine, pyroxene, plagioclase, iron sulfide and iron-nickel metal. Minerals within bodies of the Solar System have unique oxygen isotope ratios, thought to be determined by gas-dust chemistry and accretion physics. However, the Earth and the Moon are the only bodies for which isotope ratios are known. Twenty-eight (28) of the sample grains returned by Hayabusa were analyzed for oxygen isotope abundances. The ratios were compared to the ordinary chondrite meteorite Ensisheim (an LL-6 chondrite) and Earth minerals, and the uncertainty in measurements were calibrated against standard mean ocean water (SMOW) from Earth. The results show that the grains returned by Hayabusa are not of terrestrial origin. One of the Earth minerals was a fosterite crystal from San Carlos, Arizona. Chondrites are classed as H, L or LL, and the samples from Itokawa are clearly L or LL and not H. The variation in ratios between samples indicates the degree of equilibration due to metamorphic heating. These data indicate that the samples from Itokawa experienced temperatures between 600 C and 720 C, which is lower than LL6 chondrites and higher than LL4 chondrites. These results are consistent with those from those reported in the first paper and provide unequivocal evidence that ordinary chondrites come from S-Type asteroids.

Grail – On the Way to The Moon

Grail Launch Aboard Delta II Image Credit: NASA

NASA’s Grail mission was launched successfully this morning at 6:08 AM Phoenix time aboard a venerable Delta II rocket. The twin spacecraft have separated from the launch vehicle and deployed their solar arrays. They are expected to arrive at the Moon in about three and a half months. The Gravity Recovery And Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission is designed to capture the most accurate gravitational map of the moon to date. It will improve the resolution of near-side gravity by 100 times and of far-side gravity by 1000 times. Students in grades 5 to 8 can participate in the exploration of the Moon with MoonKAM. Teachers can register for MoonKAM and give their students the opportunity to take their own pictures of the moon.

The Boulder on the Peak of Tycho Crater

The Central Peak on Tycho. Image credit: NASA / GSFC / Arizona State University

This image is a very recent release from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbital Camera (LROC), taken 10 June 2011. The angle was 65 degrees in order to capture the sunrise on the peak in Tycho crater. The large boulder in the center is 120 meters across. Tycho is located at 43.37°S, 348.68°E, and is ~82 kilometers (51 miles) in diameter. The central peak rises 2 kilometers above the floor of the crater. The floor is almost 5 km below the rim. Below left is a view of the entire central peak, and below right is a view of the entire crater.

The central peak of Tycho Image credit: NASA / GSFC / Arizona State University

Tycho Crater Image credit: NASA / GSFC / Arizona State University

Falcon Heavy

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) announced the final specifications for its Falcon Heavy rocket: Mass to LEO (200 km, 28.5 deg): 53,000 kg (117,000 lb) Overall Length: 69.2 m (227 ft) Width (body): 3.6 m (12 ft) x 11.6 m (38 ft) Width (fairing): 5.2 m (17 ft) Mass on liftoff: 1,400,000 kg (3,100,000 lb) Thrust on liftoff: 17 MN (3,800,000 lbf)

Space X Falcon Heavy Image Credit: Space X

Space X expects to launch its first Falcon Heavy by the end of 2012. This is 4 years before Congress has mandated NASA to deliver a new heavy lift rocket (2016), which NASA has indicated it is unable to do within the budget that Congress has granted. The politicians have violated the cardinal rule of project management: you have three variables – cost, time and quality. You are allowed to specify two and the project manager will tell you what the third one is. Elon Musk has indicated that two Falcon Heavy rockets would be sufficient to mount a substantive Moon mission. Even one Falcon Heavy could do so if the crew was small.

One might speculate about the size of the mission if propellant depots were available to refuel an empty spacecraft weighing 50,000 kg. The final all up weight of a fully fueled space craft could be in the neighborhood of 400,000 kg. That is far more than is needed for any mission beyond Earth orbit that is currently imagined, save for a full blown expedition to Mars. This was the vision Werner Von Braun had for refueling in space, before America was sidetracked by the need to land a man on the Moon before the decade was out. He did not have the time to develop the refueling technology. Rockets as big as the Saturn V and the (hopefully) canceled Ares V are not needed for manned exploration of the Solar System.

International Space Station Solar Transit During Solstice Eclipse

The International Space Station Transits the Sun during December’s Solstice Eclipse.
Image Credit: Thierry Legault